Vienam wood pellet export is forecasted to be nearly 4 million tons in 2021.
In the last five years, the output of wood pellet is increasing 25% per year on average. In 2020, Vietnam exported about 3.1 million tons. In the first 4 months of 2021, this figure is about 1.3 million tons.
Figure 1: Annual wood pellet export volume in Vietnam (Metric tons) from 2012 to April 2021.
Source: ITC Trademap & Analysis by BVN
The market share for Japanese is increasing every year. In 2021, wood pellet exporting to Japan is about 40% of total volume.
Figure 2: Wood pelelt exporting proportion by countries
Source: ITC Trademap & Analysis by BVN
The changing in exporting proportion due to the gap between Japanese CIF price to Korean CIF price is larger.
When the price is too low, wood pellet producer shut down the factory in the short run and exit the market in the long run. This causes the shortage in wood pellet supply for Korean market. The Korean buyer will push up the price again to collect enough wood pellet for biomass power plant operation.
It can be clear to see that the trend for Korean CIF price. Korean CIF price reach the top after 5 years. In this year, the difference in CIF price of Japan and Korea are small. In 2022, the Korean CIF price is expected to be at least $150.
By contrast to Korean market, the price for Japanese market is quite stable. This is preparation of the explosion in wood pellet demand in 2024. Most of the contracts in this period are spot & short term contracts, which price is much lower than long term off take contract.
Figure 3: Vietnamese wood pellet exporting CIF price by countries
Source: ITC Trademap & Analysis by BVN
It is claimed that wood pellet exporting CIF price for Japan is higher than Korean in the last decade. When the demand is increasing, the price is pushed up in both countries and the price gap between two countries are very narrow.
When the demand of wood pellet in Japan increasing sharply in the beginning of 2024, the CIF price for Vietnamese wood pellet to Japan could reach up to more than $200.
Figure 4: Monthly Vietnamese wood pellet exporting CIF price by countries
Source: ITC Trademap & Analysis by BVN
In conclusion, it is expected that wood pellet exporting in Vietnam increasing every year till 2025. The CIF price for Korean market is epected to be at least $150 in 2022, while this figure for Japanese market is $200 in 2024.