July 2021 update: Imported volume 293,000 tons.
Japanese industrial wood pellet demands is forecasted to be 6.8 million tons per year by 2025. The chart below shows the actual imported and forecast volume from 2015 to 2025.
In the first four month of 2021, Japan imported about 0.9 million tons. The forecast figure is 3.1 million tons for this year.
Figure 1: Actual wood pellet imported to Japan and forecast
Source: ITC Trademap & Futuremetrics
There is a sharply increasing in wood pellet supply from Vietnam. The quantity supply from Vietnam has been higher than Canada since the beginning of 2019.
Figure 2: Wood pellet supply 3 months average by countries
Source: ITC Trademap & Analysis by BVN
It can be clearly seen that Vietnam has exceeded 50% the market share of Japanese wood market since 2019. The market share for Canadian is decreasing. There is participation of American wood pellet supplier to Japan market in the beginning of 2021.
Figure 3: Japanese market share 3 months average
Source: ITC Trademap & Analysis by BVN
The CIF price has been increasing since August 2020. The chart below shows 3-month moving average CIF price by countries. The CIF price for Canadian wood pellet increased from about $180 per ton in August 2020 to $200 per ton in April 2021. This figure for Vietnam is from $156 to $163.
It can be clearly to see that there is a big gap between Canadian and Vietnamese CIF price. Given the demand is fixed, when the price is low, there is a shortage in wood pellet. This push up the price for wood pellet. In the long run, the gap between CIF price will be narrow.
Figure 4: Average 3 month CIF price
Source: ITC Trademap & Analysis by BVN
In conclusion, the demand for Japanese wood pellet is increasing until 2025. It is forecasted to be 6.8 million by 2025. The market share will be change when the supply from USA and Vietnam is increasing sharply. The CIF price is increasing for both Canadian and Vietnamese wood pellet.